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EBRD improved the forecast for Macedonian GDP growth

Macedonian economy improved in 2013. It is noticed annually rising at average of 3.4 % in the first three quarters of 2013, mainly due to growth in investment and exports recovery. Inflation fell and the country continues to make efforts to attract necessary foreign investment, which should contribute to economic growth in the coming years. This is EBRD economist’s estimation for the Macedonian economy.



European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in its latest report forecasts slow recovery of the economies in the countries where it is present, improvement of the situation in most developed economies, including the U.S. and the euro zone. EBRD economists on global level for this year predict modest growth of 2.7 %, which coincides with their November projection, but it is increasing, because in 2013 the growth rate was 2 %.

According to the forecasts of EBRD economists, the Macedonian economy during this year will rise to 3 %, which is upward adjustment of 0.3 % from the November forecast.

- The economy of the Republic of Macedonia in 2013 is improved. It is rising annually with average of 3.4 % in the first three quarters of 2013, mainly as a result of continued strong growth in investment and recovery of exports of some products. In 2013, the inflation declined and the country continues to make strong efforts to attract the necessary foreign direct investment. These efforts should help the prospects for economic growth in the coming years. Growth will remain strong, approximately 3 % in 2014, due to expected growth in exports and the increase in domestic consumption and investment, this is the EBRD economists estimation of the Macedonian economy.

The other countries in Southeastern Europe with higher GDP growth, besides Macedonia is Kosovo (3.5 %), while all other countries will be with less growth in economies: Montenegro (2 %), Bosnia and Herzegovina (1.8 %), Bulgaria (1.8 %), Albania (1.7 %), Serbia (1.3 %) and Croatia (1 %) or according to EBRD, the average GDP growth in the region of Southeast Europe will be 2.1 %.

- In all SEE countries that were in recession in 2012, in 2013 was recorded positive economic growth. They are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, while growth in Romania is expected to rise up to 2.5 %. As a result, the average growth in the region of 0.4 % in 2012 rose to 2 % in 2013. Intensive exports and improved yields from agriculture were important drivers for recovery of these economies. However, unemployment remains high in the region, says the report.



For sustained recovery EBRD, economists suggest countries in the region to continue with structural reforms and deal with the consequences of the crisis, including high rates of non-performing loans and long-term unemployment.

As the emerging economies, they still suffer because of capital reflux and according to the EBRD, will it probably take some time, given the expected gradual tightening of the monetary policy of the United States.

For the first time since 2011, the net private capital flows are negative in the region of EBRD in the third quarter.

- World Economy shows positive signs, particularly in advanced countries. However, the EBRD region is not yet out of danger and faces many challenges, says EBRD chief economist Erik Berglof.

EBRD indicates that reducing the level of debt, especially in some countries of Central Europe and the Baltic region (CEB) and South Eastern Europe (SEE) is factor that delays the credit growth.

The report highlights the increase lending in local currency in many countries of Central and Southeastern Europe, such as Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and Macedonia.

-According to the analysis of the EBRD, the availability of loans in foreign currency in these countries is influenced by the process of reducing the level of debt, while loans in local currency experience moderate growth.

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