Economic growth of 3.4% will have the Macedonian economy. Next year is predicted gross domestic product of 3.6%. This is the latest autumn forecast of the IMF. According to the International Monetary Fund for the global economy released the Annual Meeting in Washington, is the largest growth of all countries in the neighborhood and the region, reports the Lider.
Closest to our country this year, as the IMF estimates will be Kosovo, with forecasted growth of 2.7%. The forecast for economic growth in Kosovo next year is 3.3%. Montenegro is expected to achieve growth rate of 2.3% this year and 3.4% in 2015 Albania should reach rate of 2.1% this year and 3.3% next year, while in 2019 should show the highest GDP growth in the region of 4.7%. The IMF report has improved forecast for Slovenia, which is expected this year and next year to achieve growth rates of 1.4 percent, while for Bosnia and Herzegovina are expected low rate of 0.7%, and growth of 4% in 2019. According to the IMF, this year will be in recession Croatia and Serbia, for which forecasts are reduced. Croatian economy this year should have drop of 0.8% for next year to get into positive half percent. Serbia, however, due to flood damage, will have to enter in less than half percent for next year to get to positive 1%.
In many countries of the world in the latest IMF forecast revised its spring forecasts, but kept estimate of the movement of the Macedonian economy. For next year is estimated growth of the Macedonian GDP of 3.6% and for 2019 by 4%.
With this forecast, the Macedonian economy should grow above the world average.
Domestic experts are optimistic – investments will drive economic growth
They are based on the growth of major infrastructure projects that will contribute to increase investment and consumption. These forecasts provide grounds for optimism that Macedonian economy returns to pre-crisis rates of economic growth.
- In post-recession period, these are satisfactory rates of economic growth, which is signal that the economy is recovering. These rates of growth are due to capital investments, state, and private investment. This year will build three expressways and railways, which have strong input by state investment, says Dimitar Eftimovski university professor.
Analysts from Fund informed that global forecast is reduced due to weaker economic activity in the world in the first half of the year than expected. It was reduced forecast for global growth in 2015 and 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%.
Globally, the analyst from IMF consider that the best is the American economy, which this year should grow by 2.2% and 3.1% next. The euro-zone is now considered to achieve growth of 0.8%, 0.3 percentage points less than the previous forecast for next year to achieve growth of 1.3%. Germany, which is the most important trade partner of Macedonia is facing reduced forecast for this year from 1.9% to 1.4%, while Italy, which also have very good cooperation in the economic sphere, this year should end in recession with the economy decline of 0.2%.
- The risks of weakening prospects for the economy strengthened in the spring of this year. Short-term risks include strengthened geopolitical risks and medium-term stagnation and weak potential for growth in developed economies, as well as weak growth potential of emerging markets – it is said in the global IMF report.
The developed economies are recommended continued support of monetary and fiscal policy adjustments that has to be aligned to the pace and composition to support recovery and long-term growth. In series of economies, it is estimated, the increase in public investment in infrastructure, which ultimately could help to increase production.
Despite slowdown of global economic growth, financial markets reigns optimism, it is reported by IMF. IMF recommended that governments should invest in infrastructure, even those investments to be financed by borrowing.
